First and Last Word on Metals and Mining

TORONTO, Aug. 20, 2012 /CNW/ – Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSX: FNV, NYSE: FNV) and Inmet Mining Corporation (TSX: IMN) today announced that their subsidiaries have agreed to terms for a precious metals stream on the Cobre Panama copper project in Panama, one of the world’s largest copper-gold-silver-molybdenum porphyry deposits currently being constructed …

Transaction Highlights

  • Fully funded project:  Franco-Nevada will commit $1 billion to Inmet’s share of the development costs of Cobre Panama.  Inmet now has funding in place for $4.2 billion of its $4.8 billion required capital with the balance expected either from other sources of debt or from future operating cash flow.

David Harquail, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada commented, “Inmet is an experienced and proven mine operator and developer. Franco-Nevada is proud to partner with Inmet to provide the financing needed to develop one of the world’s largest mining projects.  We expect the Cobre Panama precious metals stream will be a long-term cornerstone asset for Franco-Nevada that fits well within our overall portfolio. Franco-Nevada’s funding commitment to the Cobre Panama project can largely be financed from its ongoing free cash flow.  Franco-Nevada has the capacity to do approximately another $1 billion of new investments to further grow its portfolio in this opportunity rich environment.

Franco-Nevada (Barbados) Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Franco-Nevada, will provide a $1 billion deposit, secured by a pledge of Inmet’s interests in MPSA, which will be used to fund a portion of the Cobre Panama project capital costs.  The deposit will become available after Inmet’s funding since the Full Notice to Proceed which was issued on May 18, 2012 reaches $1 billion (expected by Q1 2013).  Upon certain funding conditions under the agreement being met, Franco-Nevada (Barbados) funding of the deposit will be pro-rata on a 1:3 ratio with Inmet’s subsequent funding contributions, up to a maximum of $1 billion.

Delivery period 1 
(~years 1-11)
Delivery period 2 
(~years 12-31)
Delivery period 3 
(production beyond 
current mine plan)
Gold Stream
   Au oz delivered0 to 808,000808,001 to 1,716,188> 1,716,188
   Delivery terms120 oz Au per 1 mm lbs Cu81 oz Au per 1 mm lbs Cu63.4% of Au in concentrate
   Avg annual Au delivery73,500 oz45,400 oz
Silver Stream
   Ag oz delivered0 to 9,842,0009,842,001 to 29,731,000> 29,731,000
   Delivery terms1,376 oz Ag per 1 mm lbs Cu1,776 oz Ag per 1 mm lbs Cu62.1% of Ag in concentrate
   Avg annual Ag delivery870,000 oz995,000 oz
Gold Equivalent Stream*
   Avg annual AuEq delivery87,500 oz61,500 oz
Inmet’s annual production
   Avg annual additional  Au to IMN10,000 oz8,200 oz
   Avg annual additional  Ag to IMN153,000 oz166,600 oz

Profile based on Inmet’s Basic Engineering Summary Report for the Cobre Panama Project dated May 6, 2012
*Gold equivalent ounces approximated using $1,250/oz Au and $20/oz Ag

Payment terms:  Franco-Nevada (Barbados) will pay to MPSA an amount for each ounce of precious metals delivered equal to $400 per ounce for gold and $6 per ounce for silver (subject to an annual adjustment for inflation) for the first 1,341,000 ounces of gold and 21,510,000 ounces of silver (approximately the first 20 years of expected deliveries) and thereafter the greater of $400 per ounce for gold and $6 per ounce for silver (subject to an adjustment for inflation) or one half of the then prevailing market price.  In all cases the amount paid is not to exceed the prevailing market price per ounce of gold and silver.

The Cobre Panama project will use conventional truck and shovel mining, has a low strip ratio (0.58:1), and will use conventional flotation technology which is expected by Inmet to produce a clean copper concentrate. The project is situated close to tidewater, will have an owner-operated power plant and is expected by Inmet to have robust economics and cash costs of $0.94/lb of copper (attributable to Inmet’s share after reduction of metal credits due to the precious metals stream of $0.12/lb of copper and using consensus metal prices) over the life of the mine. The project received approval of its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment by the Government of Panama in December 2011, construction began in May 2012, and first production is expected in Q4 of 2015.

[emphasis ours]

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Reviews

Cobre Panama is a BIG deal for Franco, but BIGGER still for Inmet

August 22, 2012 at 12:15 am
Zurbo Zurbo

Assuming all the baseline production assumptions together with a steady $1600/oz gold and $30/oz silver throughout the 31 year mine life, we arrive at:

  • Net cash flow to Franco-Nevada of about $1.6 billion pre-tax

That might look impressive, but consider that Franco could invest a billion dollars in any number of ways, including a simple 30-year US treasury bond which is currently yielding ~2.75 percent. If it went that route instead, it would end up with roughly $2.5 billion at the end of 34 years (3 yrs pre-production + 31 yrs production) thereby generating a very similar return at somewhat lower risk.

Of course with 30-year treasury bonds you don’t get a call option on higher gold and silver prices (works in both directions), and significantly higher precious metal prices is what Franco-Nevada needs for this deal to make more than marginal economic sense. How significant, well even assuming $2500/oz gold and $40/oz silver the after-tax NPV@5% is “only” about $600 million compared to Franco’s $7 billion market capitalization.

Now consider the impact to Inmet, a $3 billion company having now more or less fully funded a project that boasts an after-tax NPV@8% of over $3 billion using $2.75/lb copper (increasing to ~$6 billion at $3.42/lb Cu). If Cobre Panama works Inmet should do very well, but of course it is a lot of eggs in a basket located in Panama.

9 months ago

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