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Grounding the Hype: Audit the Ft. Knox Gold!

August 25th, 2010

Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas, wants to have an audit of the gold held at Ft. Knox that is under the supposed control of the Federal Reserve. He even plans to introduce legislation next year to force the Fed to conduct an audit:

“If there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there,” he said of the Federal Reserve.

This is not the first time the congressman has made his pitch. “In the early 1980s when I was on the gold commission, I asked them to recommend to the Congress that they audit the gold reserves – we had 17 members of the commission and 15 voted no to the audit,” said Paul. “I think there was only one decent audit done 50 years ago,” he said.

Paging Dr. Paul! Paging Dr. Paul! The U.S. gold reserves held at Ft. Knox and elsewhere are actually under the control of the U.S. Mint, a bureau of the U.S. Treasury Department, and these gold reserves are ALREADY being audited by the independent accounting firm KPMG. In fact, an annual audit has been ongoing for a number of years, first by inspectors of the U.S. Treasury Department since the 1980s (Treasury inspectors are sworn federal law enforcement personnel) with additional audits by independent accounting firms starting in the 1990s.

When KPMG was appointed independent auditors for the 2005 fiscal year, the accounting firm insisted on a revised audit format that involved a complete audit including accompanying Treasury inspectors on the physical count of bullion in vault facilities at the Ft. Knox and West Point bullion depositories. Prior to this and despite Dr. Paul’s claim that the last audit was conducted in the 1950s, Treasury inspectors had conducted rotating audits of bullion held at the Ft. Knox, West Point and other depositories since the 1980s as part of a comprehensive overhaul of governmental accountability by the Office of the Management and Budget. These audits include test weighing and assays that have periodically revealed minor discrepancies in bullion fineness and weight over the years. Not all the bullion is counted each year, mind you, rather it is done on a rotating basis with Treasury seals being placed on each audited vault. The inspectors check at least on an annual basis that these seals have not been tampered with. According to my reckoning, all vaults should have been initially rotated through a few years ago, which means that the vaults now being inspected are already on their second or third audit pass.

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silverax Gold Market Fundamentals, Grounding the Hype BB, ,

Crazy Market Thoughts: Only Half the Story

August 21st, 2010

In a recent interview conducted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research and self-declared as The Best Gold Interview of 2010, Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin discusses the future supply situation in the retail bullion market. Unfortunately, most people who have been around the block in the gold market will not find his views to be particularly insightful or surprising so we’d like to spice things up a bit by adding our own contrarian arguments and twisted perspective.

Among Mr. Schectman’s not-very-extraordinary claims is that the apparent shortage of gold and silver bullion and the resulting premiums that arose during the financial crisis in 2008 were caused by extremely strong demand from panicked retail buyers. Mr. Schectman then warns us that we should expect more retail shortages in the future. We can’t really argue with his logic but we believe he is only telling half the story given that many dealers were in fact rationing their existing inventories as a result of low bullion prices. Simply put, the dealers were unwilling to sell the shelves bare at prices so terribly low.

While it is true that bullion dealers are running a business like everybody else, most of them are also gold (and/or silver) bugs and consequently have much of their wealth sunk into their business in the form of bullion inventory. That way when the eventual and inevitable price spike to $5,000 gold and $500 silver comes, they can sell it all and retire as billionaires. This might not be the case for the large corporation-style dealers or the tiny numismatic coin shop mom-and-pops but there are a lot of dealers between those two extremes. Their inventories are typically not hedged or only slightly so. More to the point, these dealers are expecting the big score along the way and would only sell out at a loss under desperate circumstances.

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silverax Crazy Market Thoughts, Gold Market Fundamentals BB,

Charlatan Exposed: Jeff Christian Doesn’t Get One Thing, At Least

June 2nd, 2010

It should come as little surprise that we generally tend to agree with Jeff Christian on many of his points and to disagree with GATA on many of their points, simply because the former makes his arguments on the basis of how the gold market actually functions while the latter makes up stuff purely for the sake of proving its predisposed views. Yet in at least one instance we can confidently declare that Jeff Christian simply does not get it whereas GATA might.

In a recent commentary from Mr. Christian stiltedly titled CPM Group Jeffrey Christian’s Final Response to GATA, we find the two sides in rare form, abusing each other verbally while dancing around perhaps the single-most critical aspect of the current gold market. Let’s quote Mr. Christian to set the mood:

4. Gold as a fractional reserve asset.

As I tore holes in GATA’s arguments, GATA tried to distract its audience by trying to change the subject, raising other issues. In so doing, it made a bigger fool of itself, demonstrating a lack of basic knowledge about the gold market, markets in general, the availability of information on market volumes, and other topics. One example of this was when GATA seized on part of my explanation of basic gold trading and banking practices and, once more misrepresenting and distorting both reality and my comments, implied that I had exposed gold as a fractional reserve asset, as if yet another conspiracy had been revealed.

The fact that gold trades on a leveraged basis, as well as on an ounce-for-ounce basis, should not be a surprise to anyone in the markets, and certainly should not come as any surprise to the self-described “experts” at GATA. However, because I have become aware that this is an area of confusion for many retail investors, I’ll take a moment to set the record straight.

Fractional reserve banking is not a new concept. It has existed for thousands of years. There is nothing shocking nor revelatory about this. The fractional reserve nature of bullion banking is analogous to the widely understood concepts of fractional reserve banking in currencies such as U.S. dollars. If one wants to own U.S. dollars outright, it is possible to keep a pile of bank notes (dollar bills) in one’s mattress or in a safe or vault. Alternatively, one may choose to deposit the money in a bank. The bank doesn’t really have enough cash on hand to allow all the depositors to withdraw all their cash at the same time. However, a system of checks and balances exists to ensure that a “run on the bank” can eventually be met, even if not immediately. Prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve System in the United States no such checks and balances existed, and people who put money in private banks often found that there was no money there when they came for it. FDIC insurance was implemented to give depositors more confidence in their bank deposits after bank runs in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash.

Similarly, if one wants to own physical gold outright, one may do that. In the bullion banking industry, this is called an allocated account, meaning that the investor has specific gold bullion bars allocated to them. The investor is the legal owner of that gold bullion, and the bank, if one is involved at all, is merely providing vault storage for a fee. This is exactly analogous to a bank offering safe deposit boxes which customers can use to store cash if for some reason they are skeptical of the bank’s ability to make good on money deposited in a regular account. Instead of being paid interest for depositing cash in a bank account, one would have to pay a fee for the safe deposit box. Similarly, allocated bullion accounts always involve the client paying storage fees to the bullion bank for the use of its vault to store their bullion.

However, gold also is a financial asset that is banked. In bullion banking jargon, this is called an unallocated account. Just like cash deposited in a checking account, the bank represents that it has enough assets to service the expected volume of withdrawals, but it doesn’t necessarily have enough bullion to allow all the depositors to withdraw all their gold all at once. many gold “certificate programs” are unallocated bullion accounts.This is well understood by professionals in the industry and by most investors involved in these assets. Again, it should come as no surprise to anyone with bona fide credentials as an expert of any kind in the gold bullion marketplace. Yet GATA has tried to portray the fact that banks are required to hold only a portion of their gold assets, as they do money, as somehow being scandalous. Again, GATA is only demonstrating ignorance of the gold market and its desperation to try to distract its readers from the reality that GATA is without any substantive arguments to make in support of its conspiracy allegations.

The fact that many retail investors incorrectly assume that unallocated accounts are backed by allocated gold bullion is certainly a legitimate concern. In fact I was an expert witness in a recent class action case against a bank brought by investor clients that felt they had been misinformed by the bank related to whether the metal they held at that bank was allocated or unallocated. However,  the solution to that problem is level-headed education, not baseless allegations of fraud and scandal. For example, Jim Puplava’s FinancialSense Internet radio show recently ran a segment on this very topic. But GATA seems to prefer sensationalism and specious allegations of fraud and conspiracy over level-headed investor education.

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silverax Charlatan Exposed, Gold Market Fundamentals BB,

Charlatan Exposed: Don’t Trust Gold Salesmen

May 29th, 2010

Physical gold is not about to become unavailable and the paper game in gold is not about to collapse. People who think otherwise need to come up with a valid reason to dispute this statement. The most convincing argument for the triumph of physical gold over paper has actually come from Adrian Douglas of GATA, who has rightfully pointed out that unallocated LBMA accounts represent a paper game of immense proportions. More on that another time. Right now let’s look at Patrick Heller of Liberty Coin Service, who is among the latest to try and fail. In his Panicky Greeks Paying Over $1,700 Per Ounce For Physical Gold, Mr. Heller makes some dubious points:

Since 1965, the Greek government has imposed restrictions on trading British Sovereign gold coins (gold content .2354 oz).  Despite those restrictions, the Bank of Greece reports that it is selling an average of more than 700 coins per day to worried Greeks.

In the first four months of 2010, the Greek central bank sold more than 50,000 sovereigns at its main downtown Athens office.  Bank officials estimate that at least 100,000 other coins changed hands on the black market.  The Bank of Greece has received as much as $409 per coin, which works out to a price of more than $1,700 per ounce of gold!  Prices paid on the black market are reckoned to be even higher.  A popular spot for street vendors to sell their coins is near the Athens Stock Exchange.  There the traders wait for citizens to bring payments received from unloading their paper assets like stocks and bonds.

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silverax Charlatan Exposed, Gold Market Fundamentals BB,

Charlatan Exposed: Don’t Trust Gold

May 28th, 2010

Brett Arends, a daily contributor to the Wall Street Journal Online, has just completed part two of his pedestrian series, “Why I Don’t Trust Gold”, wherein he makes some bold claims about gold and the gold market, some of them fair if misguided and others downright quackish. While the possible protests to his attempts at balancing the pluses and minuses for owning gold should be obvious to most of you, we still feel the need to poke a few extra holes in Mr. Arends’ end as a way of helping to place the focus on the true essence of gold.

Mr. Arends says:

It’s [Gold] a currency “substitute,” but it’s useless. In prison, at least, they use cigarettes: If all else fails, they can smoke them. Imagine a bunch of health nuts in a nonsmoking “facility” still trying to settle their debts with cigarettes. That’s gold. It doesn’t make sense.

Even if we assume that gold is completely useless as far as utility, the sheer beauty of gold still ought to count for something, no? I mean, cigarettes are ugly (and they also kill) but gold is pretty. Nobody goes halfway around the world to dig in the dirt looking for cigarettes! Are jewelers overcharging and housewives overpaying when not selling and buying gold purely on the basis of the weight of precious metal contained in a necklace, bracelet or ring? Does the value of a Picasso have anything to do with the fact that it would never ever get used in a prison as a currency “substitute”? If nothing else, gold will always have a universal appeal simply because of the way it looks. It’s natural, inherent and easy to test: just hold a gold coin and a cigarette in front of a baby and see which one gets a more positive reaction (note: we accept no liability should your strange child prefer to chomp on a cigarette instead of a gold coin).

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zurbo Charlatan Exposed, Gold Market Fundamentals BB

Sprott Offers More Units, Gold Up but PHYS Shares Fall

May 26th, 2010

We have recently been critical of the Sprott gold fund (AMEX: PHYS, TSX: PHY.U) as a way to gain exposure to gold prices because of the large premium to NAV that has been built into the share price as a result of amateurs flocking to PHYS because it is supposedly safer than the alternatives like the SPDR Gold ETF GLD or even the Central Fund of Canada (TSX: CEF-A, AMEX: CEF). Thus we were not surprised that on a day when gold was up about 1%, PHYS actually fell more than 8% after it was announced an offering of 21.6 million units was completed at a price of US$11.25. Way to track the price of gold, Mr. Sprott!

Alas, even after the decline today PHYS still carries an unacceptable 10%+ premium to NAV although it has declined from 23%+ at the close yesterday. We continue to believe PHYS at a large premium to NAV is a terrible way to own gold unless you are a broker who gets to buy it at the IPO price and then distribute it to the retail (and we suspect a few hedge fund) suckers. What a racket and what a great example of markets behaving irrationally.

silverax Gold Market Fundamentals BB, ,

Gold ETF Basis Warning Sign May 17 2010

May 17th, 2010 | Member Only

The Gold ETF Basis, representing the difference between the calculated net asset value (NAV) of the big gold ETF GLD and the spot gold price...

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Danger Will Robinson Danger! (Some Gold Investors Lost in Space)

May 12th, 2010

An incredible thing happened to start this incredible week. Some gold investors happily paid the equivalent of over $1,500 per ounce of gold. Granted this was on a day that gold was posing in preparation for breaking its previous all-time record high, but that record stood at $1,225, at least 20% below the “Lost in Space” buy. Yes, it’s true. As reported by Zero Hedge’s Tyler Durden, this Monday Investors [were] Willing To Pay 31% Premium To NAV For Sprott’s Physical Gold ETF In Strike Over Global Fiat Devaluation Insanity:

And for a far more material indication of what the market thinks of not just gold, but of representations of gold holdings by ETF’s with “imaginary” unaudited stashes all over the world, take a look at the Sprott PHYS physical gold ETF, and specifically the premium over its NAV. Today it hit an all time record of 31%. The NAV differential has steadily crept higher since the launch of PHYS. Investors are willing to pay 30% more than the real value of holdings just for the knowledge that the gold backing their “assets” actually exists.

Personally, I think the insanity is that somebody would pay a 30% premium to the physical gold price and still be stuck with paper gold (which PHYS definitely is)! If you want to know why gold has just hit a record, there it is, an insane mentality where all reason has been tossed out the window and value perception is no longer anchored in any sort of reality but rather in panic, greed and fear. Congratulations Tyler Durden for helping to lead a clueless flock of Robinsonian investors into one of the worst investment decisions I’ve seen in the past 20 years. You sir are no Robot and that is not a compliment.

Sure enough, I just checked here and the premium to NAV in PHYS on Tuesday was still an astonishing 21%!

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silverax Basis Update, Gold Market Fundamentals, Market Update BB,

More on the Friday Spike in Silver

May 10th, 2010

On Friday silver went on a tear starting around noon Eastern time, eventually adding a dollar per ounce and recovering much of the losses suffered earlier in the week. In the meantime gold remained steady above $1,200 per ounce after having caught very impressive flight to safety action while the Greek debt inferno continued to blaze. The fact that silver would have risen strongly on Friday should not be surprising as it was merely recovering its follower status behind gold, which surged pretty much all week and came within a whisker of making a new record high. What is surprising is the nearly vertical lift-off by silver around noon Eastern, and Karl Denninger thinks he knows why:

You don’t think that GOLD was being speculatively shorted beyond intraday position limits, do you?  That oval, by the way, is right when the announcement was made.

Or shall we look at SILVER?

Actually Karl, it is very doubtful that gold and silver were “being speculatively shorted beyond intraday position limits”. The reason is simple. As of the Disaggregated COT of May 4, 2010, there were a grand total of 8,627 speculative short futures positions in the reporting category (by definition a non-reporting position cannot exceed position limits). Since the speculative position limit in silver is 6,000 contracts (1,500 in the delivery month but there were only a grand total of 600 contracts outstanding and 418 contracts traded in May COMEX silver on Friday so that limit could not have been exceeded) that means one trader would need to hold the vast majority of speculative short positions. Yes, I know the CFTC warning is about intraday positions but still there are 30 large reporting traders in COMEX silver futures. It is simply inconceivable that a single or even a group of large speculative traders could have each been short more than 6,000 contracts of COMEX silver on an intraday basis especially when we look at the charts and note the trading volume that occurred in the active July 2010 COMEX silver contract during and after the price spike:

si-n0_05_07_2010

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silverax Gold Market Fundamentals, Silver Market BB,

Market Update February 11 2010

February 11th, 2010 | Member Only

This morning both gold and silver are showing some spunk even in the face of a strong U.S. dollar trading over 80 on the USD...

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