In our constant effort to find value in this recovering market we’ve spent some time this past week taking a closer look at a few microcap juniors. We’re not going to use too strict a definition of microcap here, but generally speaking these will be companies with market caps of under $30 million, and more often than not under $10 million. We’ll continue to add to the list in the future, and to this end we welcome your thoughts on what companies might make for good microcap speculation opportunities. Today we’ll take a brief look at International Enexco and Nevada Exploration. We plan to publish our initial take on Oro Gold, Oro Silver, Aura Silver, and Coral Gold very soon. Once again, we welcome your comments on other microcaps to consider, we simply ask that you include an explanation of why you feel they are worthy of speculation based on your research.
International Enexco (TSX-V: IEC)
Several comments from subscribers inspired us to take a second look at the company. We set out with great expectations, knowing of the company’s large cash buffer and multiple drill programs, only to come away disappointed.
The company’s primary asset is Contact, a small-scale developing copper project in Nevada with mediocre economics at a reasonable long-term copper price assumption. Even at current prices, the project only has a pre-tax net present value (NPV) discounted at 8% of about US$82 million. At roughly $2.00/lb copper, the NPV shrinks to about US$13 million. One might argue that with a market cap of about US$8 million that looks pretty good, but keep in mind that the company would still be required to spend a significant amount of time (est. 2013 as earliest production) and money (CAPEX of US$83 million) to fully develop the project. The company is currently planning to embark on a 33,000 ft. drill program to increase the resource quality at Contact with a goal of adding 4 years to the mine life (currently 8 years). If they move forward with the drill program, they’ll probably burn through much of their cash buffer (C$6.9 million at 9/30/09), and we’re still not confident adding 4 years to the mine life would bring this project’s economics anywhere near the level they would need to be to justify a positive production decision. If nothing else, it is hard to see anyone becoming interested in a less than 20 million lbs. per annum copper project as a potential acquisition and we can’t imagine self-funding it would be easy either.
Then there’s the issue of the mysterious Hannah gold property drill results. In its August 10, 2009 news release the company had this to say:
Assays are now pending on Enexco’s phase one drilling on the Hannah Gold Property in Churchill County, Nevada, the results of which will be published in a forthcoming Company news release…A total of 932 meters were drilled in 5 holes in the phase one program. Visual inspection showed at least 3 of the 5 holes encountered target host rocks with intervals of favorable alteration.
To the best of our knowledge, these results were never published in a news release. No doubt some investors are probably still waiting to hear how things went, not having spotted this little communique buried in the company’s notes to 9/30/09 financial statements:
Hannah, Nevada
…During the period ended September 30, 2009, the Company received unsatisfactory results and chose not to make further cash payments allowing the option to lapse. $529,137 in acquisition and exploration costs were written off for the period ended September 30, 2009.
We think this deserved to be disclosed in a promised news release and find it shameful if management did intentionally try to hide the bad news.
Then we come to the Hot Pot gold property that Enexco optioned from Nevada Exploration (TSX-V: NGE), having the right to earn a 70% interest. According to the company’s news released dated October 5, 2009:
The Phase One drilling program at the Hot Pot gold property in Humbolt County, Nevada, which commenced in July this year, is nearing completion… In the Phase One drilling program, Enexco, thus far, has succeeded in testing beneath the valley sand and gravel cover, with angled core holes to 500 metres depth. The Company is encouraged by the drilling, which has intersected altered quartzites and argillites similar to the host rocks at the Lone Tree and Marigold mines. Phase Two drilling at Hot Pot will continue to develop stratigraphic information and test the property for high-angle structures which are the focus of high grade mineralization at the aforementioned mines.
In other words, it appears that the results from the Phase One drill program are not very likely to return any significant mineralized intercepts since the favorable structures are apparently hard to hit (being near-vertical) while the program was designed primarily to develop stratigraphic information to better target the structures in future drill campaigns.
In this same press release, the company says that drilling is now underway at its Loomis Mountain project, optioned from Fronteer Development Group (TSX: FRG; AMEX: FRG). Here is how the company lays out some details of the drill program:
A 2000 metre RC drilling program consisting of 17 angled holes commenced last month. In addition to testing the gold potential of the structures within the upper plate rocks, the RC program is planned to provide direction for later core drilling to intersect the structures at depth within the more favorable lower-plate rocks, which are the host for high grade gold mineralization elsewhere in the Carlin Trend.
Complete assay results from the Loomis Mountain and Hot Pot drilling programs will be issued in forth coming press releases by the Company.
Here again it appears unlikely that the company is going to release any killer assays on the project since drilling is only “directional” and is not even targeting the more favorable lower-plate rocks, something which is being saved for future drill programs. So it remains to be seen whether results are actually forthcoming in a press release or if Enexco just plans to bury them in their next set of financial statements.
The only Enexco project left to consider is Mann Lake, where the company (30% interest) is partnered with Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) and AREVA Resources Canada. A 3,000-3,800m drill program has been planned for this winter, but we’re months away from any results and betting on eye-catching assays from this limited program is highly speculative (although not entirely unwarranted).
Overall we wish the company paid better attention to detail on its website (e.g. a misspelling of Uranium and claiming its operations manager worked for “Tech” Cominco) and was a little more polished in its presentations and corporate strategy (e.g. failed to post bios for two of its directors, most of whom are also company employees). As far as management goes, the team seems inexperienced and rather bloated for a company of this size. At the moment we see no compelling reasons to buy shares of Enexco and we don’t believe its cash position will serve as a downside buffer for much longer. We will, however, monitor the results of ongoing drill programs and may yet identify an opportunity in the future.
Nevada Exploration (TSX-V: NGE)
Apparently one of John Kaiser’s favorites, Nevada Exploration’s claim to fame is its unique approach to exploration in Nevada. With about 85 million shares and a market cap of around C$15 million, the company should do very well if its groundwater chemistry exploration methodology gains validation through successful drilling on one of the company’s 33 “highly prospective targets”. But that’s a big if, and the overhang of about 10 million warrants at C$0.10 from a dilutive financing carried out in August at C$0.0525 per unit isn’t going to help things in the short term. Having so far only joint ventured one of its projects (Hot Pot to Enexco), the share price potential in the near term appears to be rather limited and reliant on results from a drill program that doesn’t appear to have been designed to make a discovery but rather to obtain geological information for future drilling. As we’ve already explained above, however, it appears unlikely that Hot Pot results are going to come back with significant intercepts of economic grade material in the current drilling program.
In addition, perhaps it is worth quoting some of Tom’s earlier comments on the company:
[Commenting on Nevada Explorations methodology]
The exploration world is littered with methods like this (all of them basically failed) where they take a geophysical or geochemical signature that is in common with a certain deposit type and then they look for those same signatures to discover new deposits. So no, I don’t believe for a second that they “know there is gold there”.
I’m not saying groundwater is not a valid method, only that we should be careful about it being oversold on its ability to actually find gold deposits. For example most Nevada gold mines are low grade open pits that couldn’t be mined in the basins even if they were identified by groundwater. The Hot Pot project in particular appears to be prospective mostly because it contains some bedrock near surface, and this in itself could explain the presence of anomalies. Also consider that many of the gold deposits were formed in fault and fracture zones associated with the same formational processes that resulted in the basin-range configuration so the locations of these deposits is not as coincidental as the simplistic explanation that Nevada Exploration provides. If the deposits were distributed randomly as they seem to imply, they would be found all over the outcropping ranges and not predominantly at the base. All in all my sense is that the groundwater method would probably be most prospective for higher grade gold deposits, of which there are probably very large numbers in the basins left to be discovered but the problem is that even if the groundwater helps limit the area of interest it will still be extremely difficult to find such deposits (as it will require blind drilling) unless the mineralization has great vertical or horizontal continuity (not something that Nevada high grade gold deposits are particularly known for). Frankly I think this whole process is like looking for a needle in a haystack using a small magnet. Yes it’s better than using the eyes alone but not that much better.
At the current price of about C$0.15 we see few if any compelling reasons to rush out and buy NGE shares and we would rather prefer to enter at a lower price if possible after more progress has been made in joint venturing projects so as to increase the odds of validating the exploration methodology.
Disclaimer: We do not own shares in either International Enexco or Nevada Exploration and we do not currently intend to establish a position. We have not been compensated for this commentary by any party. This is not investment advice, which you should seek from an investment advisor or licensed broker.
I used to like Coronado Resource, since it was (it still is, with 7 million cad market cap) maybe the cheapest gold-copper producer out there, but then I saw them to collapse at 0.15 cad after they spiked at 0.4 cad, and so when they grew again and were worth 0.33 cad I sold them: the website doesn’t give enough info to understand the Madison Project potential in my opinion and they do not show any 43-101 resources. I bought CRD years ago at very higher prices, so I ended my experience in red, and I usually have lost money with microcap, so that now I pay much attention before I get entusiastich…
Anyway, the microcaps, other than those profiled here (Inca Pacific
, Silver Bear, … Pinnacle?) I still own are:
1) Pacific North West Capital (11 million at 0.18 cad), which I like because they are a project generator with many JV partners in search for north american PGM and nickel assets. They are quite rich in cash but unfortunatly they spent some to leave their previous focus and to became gold producers in Alaska 0_0
2) Apogee Minerals (12 million market cap at 0.125 cad), which I like because of its two silver assets, even if I have some fears about the bolivian JV, which is the more compelling of the two.
3) San Anton Resources (28 million market cap at 0.27 cad per share) which I like for the big 43-101 gold & silver resource, which is very low grade, but could become economic with PM higher prices I expect in the coming years. I have very little value in SNN shares since they lost uch of it after I bought them, and I didn’t buy any more at cheaper prices.
I forgot these two (with one of them being the most important of all 5, the following):
4) Dynacor Gold, (7 million market cap at 0.225 cad per share), which I like because it is a PROFITABLE gold producer, with positive PE, with a 36k oz gold production in 2008, and because they are one of the very very few shareholder friendly micro-to-mid cap mining companies!
5) Golden Goliath (9 million market cap at 0.145 cad per share), which I like because it owns an entire mining district (and then some more assets) without any option payment to be made, with a nice silver resource potential they just need to better define). We already spent same words, Tom and me I mean, and actually we both see no hurry to buy this one, I wouldn’t be a buyer today, but I hold from a long time and I do not want to exit either.
I also forgot to say about my rare metals microcaps, I own as no expiry call options on the future price of:
- indium (Adex Mining, 11 million at 0.125 cad per share, is my choose right now, but I’ll monitor future price movements and maybe I could switch my position to Lithic),
- gallium (Gold Canyon, GCU.V, 9 million at 0.165 cad per share, which has got also intriguing PM assets)
- tantalum (Gippsland, GIP.AX, 33 million aud at 0.06 aud per share, I’ve been trading the stock in a lucky manner, adding at 0.035 aud and selling at 0.9 aud! while holding the 50% core position, Gippsland is my tantalum choose right now, but I’ll monitor future price movements and maybe I could switch my position to Commerce Resources, but in this case a stronge relative price change is requested before Commerce gets more interesting).
Right now the only one of my three lottery tickets I would add is GCU.V, which is in a weekness phase, I suggest it to Tom & David attention, not because of the gallium asset, but because of the gold exploration potential that I would expect to be more … “hot” in today PM sector hungry for risky exploration plays.
Comments please!
Enexco drill results on Loomis are in line with our expectations and no positive notes were hit in updating the Hot Pot program (assays are pending).
@Giuseppe
Coronado – They are fiddling with a tiny system at Madison and would need to show something of a bigger scale or a more widespread exploration program before touching this with even a 10 foot pole.
Pacific North West – Not impressed with them spending their cash and now having to raise money again although they do seem to have at least one project with potential (there are many other juniors like that though).
Apogee – No problem with it at current price but I’d make it a small percentage of a speculative portfolio. At some point Golden Minerals would look like the better way to play it.
San Anton – This is progressing toward a small-scale heap leach project with total gold and silver recoveries over 12 years of approx. 750,000 gold-equivalent ounces, and they have 64% of that. I don’t have costing data but a project of this size wouldn’t be worth that much. If they make something of the larger and lower grade sulfide deposit that means Chesapeake Gold will really make something of theirs even before then.
Dynacor – I’m not interested in a company that runs a custom mill and doesn’t seem interested in exploring their own properties.
Golden Goliath – It is a long-term district play that should have plenty of opportunities to buy in the future without worrying about missing the majority of any upside.
Gold Canyon – The Spring Pole Gold Project looks prospective but it is quite high risk as all “re-interpreted” projects tend to be. I’d like to see the shares pull back even more before plunking down some dough.
Adex – I wasn’t too impressed with the recent preliminary assessment but the company is pretty cheap.
Gippsland – If the project financing goes through I would assume there is some decent upside available.
Maybe there is no other microcap junior with a world class gold project other than Pinnacle Mines.
Today Pinnacle reached the 0.1 cad level you though to be a good entry point, if I do not remember badly. Probably there are some chances that before dicember 18th a lower bottom could be reached, but since I like the Silver Coin Project (or any other world class gold project of course) being sold at under 15 million dollars fully diluted market cap (= 10 dollars for each in situ 43-101 gold oz in Canada), I prefer to pay 0.1 cad today and not risk to lose another train as I lost Imperial Metals! I suggest you to do the same… well… I mean after I’ve been able to buy my shares!
I think at 10 cents with Pinnacle we have finally reached a safe zone of buying. We may put in some stink bids perhaps down to 7-8 cents but don’t blame you for buying at 10 cents. At this point the Silver Coin Project is not world-class, it only has world-class potential (and still quite a long shot). Meanwhile the disastrous outcome at Decade Resources’ property (as predicted) tends to diminish the shine of Stewart area district plays. Still, I can’t quibble with 10 cents.
My order got filled. Now you can write down your speculative comment and good luck for your 8 cents bids!
Thanks for perspective on IEC and NGE – I see NGE as worth having a few and an accumulate if it falls as it does have huge potential if IEC get anywhere, even a hint might be good, but take the point that maybe more downhill yet.
NewCO – Oremex, ORM, as per link from Otto to write-up by Mickey Fulp. I’m always a little cautious with Mickey (found his attitude a bit odd when I once followed up a report), but he does do leg-work:
Tejamen, Mexico, almost pure silver, surface rights are not yet acquired but now heading in right direction, 644k oz Au, $15m fd mkt cap at $.15, at least he mentions there will be dilution, not visited yet.
So why does he think it is so attractive? No blue sky mention, no discussion of Capex. OK, it may still go up a bit, but looks well liable to any downturn. His main attraction seems to be that it is a pure silver play.
http://www.miningcompanyreport.com/mercenary_musings/musing_091214_Oremex_Resources_Inc__A_Pure_Silver_Play_in_Mexico.pdf
Oddly I didn’t seem to get my normal “advance” mailing as a subscriber to his site.
I don’t understand this one — I used to like the story years ago when they came out with the preliminary economic assessment and were saying that the surface issues were on the verge of being resolved. But then it turned out they were lying. I also wasn’t able to get very far with the company in trying to understand how the metallurgy and actual mining would work. It is a different management team now but the project still has the same issues. If somebody doesn’t like New Gold (i.e., Otto of Inka Cola News) because one of its less valuable projects, Cerro San Pedro, is having issues with the locals, they really won’t like Oremex given that the mine would be literally within the town limits of Tejamen. Finally, pure silver deposits need economies of scale to be profitable, and at this point Tejamen is probably too small. For a pure silver play, I would look at Silver Bear (about the same market cap and silver resource but has over $10 million in cash) or a company that is not pure silver but has very high grades like MAG or Alexco.
now 1.58, very good G, I didn’t buy.
New zone and drill map in new PR. Any chance of a comment on potential of this (given general area / rock type / size / results so far)?
Could we PLEASE have a comment search soon.
Do not put the knife into the wound Dave!
I sold the whole position at 0.3 c$ months ago, not long after I mentioned it here. Also prematurely sold GCU at about 20% of current price.
Actually I sold all the companies mentioned here, except one of the poor performers: Golden Goliath.
I exited Adex at 0.09 but then bought some back in august at 0.105 after the news release about the bought financing (done at 0.12) of their indium-zinc asset and I’m happy with it.
@Dave
I’ll try prodding Tom about the comment search again today as he’s more the one in charge with making changes to the blog formatting. The good news is that I found an easy to implement add-in that should do the trick, but the bad news is that we may want to make some other software changes before tweaking things any further.
Z/S – Are we getting nearer an Open Thread yet?
Meanwhile, EM GOLD (EMR), anyone looked at this ever?
Trying to reopen “the historic Idaho-Maryland Gold Mine, located in Grass Valley, California.”
Has some gold (.472MozAu M&I, 1MozAu I), sub $10m MC-OS at $.25, but 50% more FD, seems to have got things badly wrong in past. Has bonanza veins and “To date, 26 conceptual gold exploration targets have been defined, each with potential for a large gold deposit.”
@Dave
We haven’t decided how to do the open thread yet, at this point we’ll get the website redesigned first. Regarding the Grass Valley gold mine, this is a long shot and the grades and tonnages simply don’t appear sufficient to have a profitable mining operation in California. My guess is they will doodle around with small miner exempt or test production for years but if they actually put together some credible development plan then it might be worth a look-see.
@silverax
Thanks re EMR, will ignore for now, another one in case you have an opinion but that actually looks more prospective, enough to investigate further?….
Empire (EPC), I saw this because of ceasarsreport.com, this is an old chromite mine reopen in Albania. Main info is the Nov 4th report on http://www.caesarsreport.com/reports, see also follow-up on 22nd and then mention in their 2011 picks.
There was a NR yesterday just saying “we’re getting on with it” that prompted me to look at this again.
Mktcap is .57*42Mfd. They are about to start using old adits and will sell ore as they develop them as an alternative to surface drilling. No resource calc but assumed to be over 10m tonnes of direct-shipping (see below) chromite ore that can be sold for $250/tonne with costs of <$100 and with intended 400ktonnes per year production in a few years.
Price popped recently because of some other Cu/Au drilling success (well, are those grades good enough that deep, but a side issue except for now higher cost of entry).
This is one of those unusual plays that might actually go CF+ sooner rather than later, for now they have cash from a royalty and share deal with Anglo Pacific.
Weather has delayed 2011 work so the 2011 ramp-up figures may not be realistic now.
Sample line from table in PDF: 2012: 100ktpa = $15M CF, if 75M shares then = .2/share.
Assumption is chromite price will rise. What can possibly go wrong….
Anyway, maybe someone can tell me before I get too deep into this. [Realistic sales prices (other supply / continuing demand), extraction costs, annual rate, other costs, political risk?]
Direct-shipping – Caesar actually say "very little processing required". Certainly they don't plan to build a plant for the high-grade stuff, I'm thinking there is no processing, but I'm not sure.
And coincidentally I see Caesar have EMR as a pick, but that's not where I noticed it.
@Dave
I’d want to see them actually drill some of the interpreted fold cusps or major unmined limbs before I’d be prepared to assign odds that they will end up with a long mine life. The long-awaited drill results released yesterday did not confirm that they have found important unmined limb or cusp extensions of the chromite deposit so it is basically back to the drill bit for more exploration. This could easily end up looking like any of a number of Mickey Mouse operations consisting of marginally-profitable small scale production with little realistic chance of scaling to a company-making mining operation. The company certainly doesn’t look overvalued but near-term upside from the chromite project does not look certain at all to me. I’m actually more interested in their porphyry projects at this point. The picture might change if they hit one of those interpreted chromite cusp folds or limbs with the drill bit — you should be looking for something like multiple intercepts of 3-10+ meters of 40% chromite.
Well although I agree they don’t seem to know exactly where it all is and haven’t found the cusps, surely the April 10 drilling did confirm that there the limbs are there?
Although I don’t see how you get 500m width from the schematic re-interpretation as per http://www.empireminingcorp.com/i/nr/2010-09-30-reinterpretation.pdf, and the assays http://www.empireminingcorp.com/i/nr/2011-01-31-assays.pdf, don’t show the high grades. So I’m thinking they’ve used the lower grades to “prove” the thrust fault idea and assume the high grades have moved with it. I’ve emailed to ask.
@Dave
The “limbs” they found could be broken remnants and not necessarily strike extensions, in any case I don’t see much continuity there and that is critical. They also spent a lot of time in the press release talking about the possibility of lower grade ore being upgraded via offsite processing in order to create direct ship grade and that to me signals the possibility they may have to entertain a Plan B. Overall, given their plan to scale mining, I’d be inclined to actually see them drill something first that they will be able scale into before assigning much credibility to their plan. Certainly if the direct ship chromite is there in size to be found, the company appears to have some very good prospects. If.
A few other january news I noticed, but first let me say Adex Mining is up 65% today with still no news out!?!?!
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Jan. 25, 2011 (Marketwire) – Salazar Will Drill 20,000 Metres at Curipamba in 2011
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Jan. 13, 2011 (Business Wire) – Stans Energy Corp. Acquires Past-Producing Heavy Rare Earth Processing Facility and Rail Terminal.
(thanks Dave for this ten bagger, I wish I held more shares)
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Jan. 13, 2011 (Marketwire) – Robex Resources Inc./Impressive Results at Nampala: 1.74 g/t Over 44 Meters, Including 8 Meters at 4.18 g/t
(it is under the 100 grammeters level, but let’s remember this company has a MC under 20 M $.
I posted here because the mining news review stuff is public, here you can feel free to say whatever you want).
- – - – -
Jan. 10, 2011 (Canada NewsWire Group) – Mawson Resources has increased its ground holding at the Rompas gold-uranium project in Finland by 40%. New Claim Reservations have been granted for 38,510 Ha providing Mawson with a contiguous block of 134,429 Ha in the Rompas project area
@Giuseppe
Thanks Guiseppe, We will soon have a tool that allows us to document this review in a much better way, and at that point you’ll see us including more of the critical projects. Just a quick comment here, Salazar has now hit our buy area and we are getting very itchy to pull the trigger finger. The stock has no interest and no love but the project could turn out to be a world-class VMS district. Sucks that it is Ecuador but still we think the stock is selling for at least a 50% discount even accounting for country risk — my estimate is they have 1 million ounce gold-equivalent so far (counting only the gold and silver) plus 300mm lb Cu plus 300 mm lb Zn. The grade is phenomenal and Ecuadorian politics permitting, this is going to be a mine and yet may only be the tip of the iceberg.
Good job on Stans Energy, what a risk-reward play that turned out to be with HREE in Kyrgyzstan (we really ought to look at the REE space using our comparative approach — one of these days!). That said, there is one company we’ve been looking at…
Robex — no comment (possibly in a good way)
Mawson — It just refuses to cool down, but at some point we do still expect a pullback big enough to entice us to finally take a position. This could be really big in the 3-5 year timeframe so there is no need to go back all the way to the 40 cent level for this to look very interesting again.
Well, about RUU the first time I bought it was the very same day when a civil war begun in Kirghizistan! I bought at 0.3 and immediately sold at a loss the day after. Then Dave and I had a private conversation and he persuaded me to re-enter a position at 0.5 cad (which I unfortunately half sold at 1, and another 25% at 2 cad). But that’s wasn’t my only REE play, I actually owned all the heavy REE dominant plays (ALK.AX, QRM and the questionable Tantalus too until recently) and also AVL up to its great jump when begaun trading on the AMEX. I’m now inclined to think that the REE companies, even those heavy REE dominant I only own, are now too expensive to invest in, so I am prone to redeploy profits on other specialty metals. But I would really like to know the name of the company you are looking at, is it QRM? (QRM is now trading at a market cap cheaper than RUU!)
In the past I was wrong when I told that TC was trading at half from year’s high, I didn’t watch the chart, but my yahoo finance watchlist with the 52 weeks range of prices, which was reported wrong. You said you are going to make future comparative analysis into these specialty metals sectors, as a rare metals fan may I ask if, at a shallow glance, you are already guessing if some company seems to be relatively cheap vs its competitors? I still am holding Geovic which has been underperforming other primary cobalt plays (big winners like FCO and FT) despite its world class project and its healthy treasury, but that one is making me lose my patience actually. I also know that when these spleepers wake up they usually recover all time lost, or so I hope!
@Giuseppe
That Dave fella sure knows a thing or two!
This is not a member-only post so I don’t want to mention the REE play plus there might still be some obvious issue I have yet to identify. Agreed the majority of the REE plays are now well-advanced in valuation so any further upside should be measured, but truly there are a couple of these companies that are going to make it as mines besides MCP and Lynas, both of which actually could end up being in trouble later because they are probably going to oversupply the ex-China market with cerium and lanthanum. So there are going to be a couple of winners in the REE space once we can focus in on the fundamentals instead of all this generic frenzy about rare earths, and we should be in a great position to look at things logically after the shakeout that I guarantee will come at some point.
In cobalt basically I think you have one of two strategies you need to approach — one is supplying the market with reliable, low cost material that can be easily processed and the other is on the specialty side of supplying high purity metal for specific applications. Formation Chemical is an example of the latter though it still has some chances to screw things up and I actually think there will be a buying opportunity coming up. I don’t yet know for sure if Geovic would be an example of the former.
Well I would be interested in another REE play. Kaiser & Dines are still hot on them. I missed the RUU play. I was too worried about the geo risk & number of shares out there.
@chris_k
Not quite “another REE play”, but a short comparison of the main wannabe players by a RUU devotee, who I tend to follow for sake of an easy life. Not that the ones he doesn’t like don’t go up, but this is probably a realistic viewpoint in terms of how things will pan out in time. Oddly GWG doesn’t get included in his summary, they would seem to have a chance. And not that RUU doesn’t have the political semi-wildcard to worry about, and isn’t that big a resource, but the management would seem to have plans for something bigger, by way of other deposits.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=RUU&t=LIST&m=29272831&l=0&pd=0&r=0
@Dave
well thats one way of looking at things. Do you know anything about the poster ?
I have been following Dines & Kaiser & have done very well. I’m down to very small positions due to profit taking. Ruu has corected off its high, so its either burned itself out, or getting ready to go for the moon. Kaiser was very down on GWG & RUU , so that makes me nervous on them.
I own & still like MDL as a spec, any thoughts there? thanks.
@chris_k
the poster JMInvestor5 has posted some bits and pieces of what looks like sensible analysis. That’s all I really know, we did exchange a few messages when I tried to find out about Tantalus (TAE, Frankfurt), but as TAE are particularly unresponsive that didn’t go anywhere much. I would read his posts and see what you think.
Dines, as I understand it, has a PNP connection and favours their financing plays? I don’t know anything else.
I don’t skim the free stuff off Kaiser as much as I used to (still own AMZ of course, and LWC and DOS, even EUK (whoops), but the latter ones are ones he abandoned I think). I think he tries hard, but that doesn’t mean he has to pick every winner, and as he knows all these geo people he maybe under a bit of subconscious pressure? ["Of course we'll sort out the metallurgy".] What he never seems to factor in is dilution, always found that odd.
MDL: Know nothing, well, Micky F promoted it a couple of weeks ago the same day they released some bad assays I think I read. JMInvestor5 considered it too far from production.
I’d like to bring your attention to NIB (V) – Niblack Mineral Dev. Corp., with a current market cap of 16.5MM.
It’s a spin off from previous Committee Bay Resources (NCG.V). It has an eventual 30% interest in the Niblack project on Admiralty Island, Alaska, and said to be geologically similar to several succesful projects on the Alaskan panhandle coast.
It’s JV partner is Heatherdale Resources (HTR), formed by the Hunter Dickerson group to bring the project to the development stage, funding exploration, an 43-101 estimate and a bankable feasibilty study. Hunter Dickinson seems to have in mind eventual sale or JV along the lines of their recent deal Continental to Jinchaun. (http://topnews.co.uk/213251-china-s-jinchuan-takes-over-continental-minerals-432million)
Currently the market cap of HTR is 73 MM, implying a similar value cap to NIB of about 30MM, a 90% premium on NIB’s current cap. NIB also owns 2 other highly prospective properties in the vicinity which the market seems to valuing at 0.
Recent news includes HTR insiders and connected persons ponying up by way of non-brokered PP for the last 10MM
to finance their earn-in. A great vote of confidence in the viability of the project.
Exploration results continue to be in line with expectations and include a marvelous recent hole of 1700.00/ton rock:
“Niblack Joint Venture Drilling Intersects High Grade While Expanding Lookout
Zone at Niblack 14.7 Feet of 7.01% Copper, 10.59 g/t Gold, 20.48% Zinc, and
192 g/t Silver
What’s wrong with this picture?
@Dave
The guy knows his stuff — metallurgy and mineralogy are being almost completely ignored when looking at REE projects whether it is the newsletter guys, consulting engineers or brokers. Also key is the REE mix, not just the HREE component. Some light REE are not in shortage longer term even though they have made some of the largest % gains in price recently, and so firms using REE basket pricing are often being completely ridiculous because the price gains on not-so-rare rare earths are being overweighted. They guy has also identified three solid companies to pump — Macusani Yellowcake, Advance Explorations and MacArthur Minerals. That said, I’m not as keen on his idea that a smaller REE mine with potentially-marginal economics is the way to go: it is critical for such mines to have very long-term offtake agreements and then they must be able to achieve stable production (offtake agreements can often be terminated for failure to deliver). Even then, I am personally not keen on the investment opportunity that a situation like that offers. So to summarize, is Stans Energy more likely to have a mine and much earlier than the vaunted AVL’s and RES’s of the world? Yes that appears probable. Does that make Stans a great REE investment? Not necessarily. We actually think there is another REE company, not mentioned by many others, that has the best-odds combination of becoming a mine and in terms of investment opportunity. I’ll try to do a post on it shortly, even if it isn’t very comprehensive at least we’ll have the name out there for subscribers.
@broxburnboy
Doesn’t seem much wrong with it, I do think the market is pricing it like Heatherdale will own 70% of the project but it still appears cheap. I note the Niblack website and presentations are really out of date so they probably haven’t focused on investor relations much and that might explain the disconnect. The latest drill results are certainly noteworthy. That said, we actually have our gaze currently set on another VMS exploration play — to be discussed soon.
Fulp does a belly flop on Stans — is he missing something? http://www.goldgeologist.com/mercenary_musings/musing-110207-REE-Review-The-Anatomy-and-Dissection-of-a-Junior-An-Analysts-View.pdf
Being paid?
Seems like DNG.TO has found the floor/support around the buck range. 1/4 of the way through their 2011 exploration program @ Tumipampa, ok drill results thus far, more results to be released soon, record gold production in 2011. Tight non-dilutive share structure (40M) drill results should provide the near term catalyst. Looks like a low risk play at this point.
Seems like DNG.TO has found the floor/support around the buck range. 1/4 of the way through their 2011 exploration program @ Tumipampa, ok drill results thus far, more results to be released soon, record gold production in 2011. Tight non-dilutive share structure (40M) drill results should provide the near term catalyst. Looks like a low risk play at this point.
re Emire EPC
Yes, well, no chromite likely to be mined in 2011 it seems, but their Demirtepe Cu seems to be interesting and has the Wollastonite to help it along.
Yet more data, surveys, today, just wondered if you’d had a look. Yet another “valuable”? stock at a low.
@Dave
Chargeabiliity anomalies presumed to indicate a leached porphyry body that does not outcrop or otherwise have a geochemical surface signature? They have quite a low prediction rate for the presence of an actual deposit in my opinion and experience. Drilling a hole will tell and I would wait for that. Overall though the stock still looks cheap after being down the typical 60-70% from earlier this year so it will likely rise when the juniors as a whole do…
@Dave
Legal shenanigans re Albanian chromite may be over, subject to 26th July final appeal deadline, EPC have it back having now won two of two against the state mining ministry. EPC could be cheap, but should I add to my losing position…. [In March EPC managed to avoid a dilutive pp by doing a deal with anther Giustra co that exchanged cash for a Cu prop, but which EPC can reverse if they want to when the opportunity to do a pp at a proper price comes along.]
ps: Admin note: the search facility still seems to be limping:
1) If ordered by “date” it still highlights “date” in search results.
2) A search for “epc” (no quotes) does not match a single instance of the epc ticker in a few articles (I had to use “empire” to find them)
pps: And don’t expect any much response from uk people this Friday pm, all too busy watching to see if Murray gets to Wimbledon final (tennis is bit of a sore point for us).